Tip Bermain Forex untuk Pemula

Tip Forex trading yang penting bagi pemula adalah dengan menggunakan account demo ketika Anda pertama kali memulai trading forex online. Gunakan akun demo perdagangan forex (fx) untuk tiga bulan pertama sebelum Anda memulai trading dengan uang sungguhan. Banyak perusahaan seperti Deutsche Bank, Marketiva, MetaTrader dsb akan memberikan demo account gratis hinggs $50.000.

Ini adalah tip penting untuk mengatur dan menghitung Anda pada rekening demo forex trading. Membiasakan diri dengan perangkat lunak dan platform. Hal ini penting untuk hanya belajar satu atau dua dari pasangan mata uang utama; pasangan mata uang utama adalah yang terbaik untuk mengikuti karena mereka adalah yang paling liquid (mudah dan sangat tren ke arah perubahan nilainya).

Tip lain untuk perdagangan forex adalah untuk mendapatkan merasakan gerakan pasangan mata uang yang dipilih, selalu menggunakan demo account fx sampai Anda siap untuk maju ke uang riil. Misalnya, pasangan USD/GBP bisa sangat sibuk pada sesi pagi Eropa tapi tenang setelah pasar Amerika benar-benar masuk ke dalam ayunan penuh. Belajar dan mendapatkan nuansa untuk ini dan tren seperti lainnya sebelum Anda memulai trading dengan uang sungguhan.

Cara terbaik untuk perdagangan forex adalah untuk mengkonfirmasi tren. Sebuah tren dikonfirmasi dengan melihat grafik, sebuah proses yang dikenal sebagai analisis teknis. Banyak pedagang membuat bisnis mereka untuk meramalkan di mana pasar sebelum hal itu terjadi dan perdagangan yang sesuai. Ini sangat penting dan tip penting untuk forex trading. Maka ini diperlukan fundamental analisis.

Tergantung atas apa kerangka waktu Anda ingin mengambil posisi strategis, akan membuat perbedaan besar bagi strategi Anda secara keseluruhan, oleh karena ujung lain perdagangan forex adalah jika Anda mengambil posisi dalam jangka pendek, mungkin satu minggu sampai satu bulan maka Anda tidak benar-benar ingin melihat grafik jangka panjang. Maka menetapkan posisi jangka waktu anda dipengaruhi oleh waktu luang anda atau keinginan total keuntungan anda. Semua jangka waktu punya karakteristik dan model analisa spesifik.

Kesiapan yang paling penting di dalam main Forex adalah sikap dan jiwa. Jangan tamak dan tagang karena itu akan membuat malapetaka analisa Anda. Banyak orang kehilangan banyak uangnya karena dia TAMAK. Jadi bermain forex juga membuat anda semakin bijaksana. 🙂 Good Luck!

Economic Calendar for week 6th – 10th April 2009

**Note: All times GMT, not DST**

PLEASE NOTE – All times GMT

Monday April 6th:

EU -08:30 – Sentix Investor Confidence.
EU -09:00 – Retail Sales M/M.
EU – 09:00 – PPI M/M.
US – 17:00 – FOMC Member Warsh Speaks.

Tuesday April 7th

UK – 08:30 – Manufacturing Production M/M.
UK – 08:30 – Industrial Production M/M.
US – 14:00 – IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.
US -19:00 – Consumer Credit M/M.
UK – 23:01 – Nationwide Consumer Confidence.
UK – 23:01 – NIESR GDP Estimate.

Wednesday April 8th

GE – 06:00 – Trade Balance.
FR – 06:45 – Trade Balance. .
UK – 09:30 – BRC Shop Price Index Y/Y.
GE – 10:00 – German Factory Orders M/M.
US – 14:00 – Wholesale Inventories M/M..
UK – 14:30 – Crude Oil Inventories.
US – 18:00 – FOMC Meeting Mintues.

Thursday April 9th

GE – 06:00 – Final CPI M/M.
EU – 08:00 – ECB Monthly Bulletin.
UK – 08:30 – PPI Input M/M.
UK – 08:30 – PPI Output M/M.
UK – 08:30 – Trade Balance.
UK – 09:00 – CB Leading Index M/M.
GE – 10:00 – Industrial Production M/M.
UK – 11:00 – Official Bank Rate.
UK – 11:00 – MPC Rate Statement.
US – 12:30 – Trade Balance.
US – 12:30 – Unemployment Claims.
US – 12:30 – Import Prices M/M..
US – 14:30 – Natural Gas Storage.

Friday April 10th

Bank Holiday EU/ FR/ GE/ UK

FR – 06:45 – Industrial Production M/M.
FR – 06:45 – CPI M/M.
FR – 06:45 – Gov Budget Balance.
US – 18:00 – Federal Budget Balance.

EU – Europe wide
FR – France
UK – United Kingdom
US – United States
GE – Germany

The week ahead.

US markets closed Friday up around 1%, which in the context of recent volatility is not really much to write home about. Recently, US markets have had an average trading range of 2% per day, which is actually down on the recent peak of 4% per day. In volatility terms, things seem to be quietening down, and this is usually a positive for equities which loath the unknown more than bad news. When the economic data becomes more predictable, markets can move to price in bad news, as appears to have happened today.

Markets finished up on Friday, which is not what one would have automatically expected from the release of the highest US unemployment numbers for 25 years. Wednesdays ADP job numbers gave traders a reasonable steer on Fridays data, so traders werent entirely shocked by the announcement. Fridays job numbers were very weak though, theres no getting away from that. What is most concerning is acceleration in unemployment. Anecdotally many people across the world have been saying the saying the same thing the shocking thing about this global recession is how quickly things have developed to point of near depression levels. In the US 5.1 million jobs have been lost since the recession started, but two thirds of these happened in the last 5 months. It would seem that this has been a similar pattern across the world. With Thursdays agreement from the G20 to inject huge sums of cash into the global economy, world governments are hoping to stem the speed of the collapse at the very least.

Elsewhere, the long awaiting FASB announcement on Mark to market accounting rules were released with positive implications for the banks. Some analysts believe the rules changes could increase banks net income by 20% or more. In addition to this, news that the UK government has agreed to back some of RBSs business loans and the decision by Barclays to not participate in the governments asset protection scheme made it a good week for financial overall.

There was mixed news on the UK housing market with the Nationwide saying house prices rose nearly 1% in March, but Halifax saying that prices dropped 1% in March. The differences underline the volatility in month to month housing data.

The ECB ruffled some feathers by cutting rates in the eurozone by just 0.25% to 1.25. Trichet commented that rates could still go lower in coming months, but the ECBs adoption of a ZIRP policy is noticeably slower than the UK and US. Although businesses would have appreciated lower rates, investors seem to have interpreted the ECBs action as meaning that the European economy is in better shape than many thought. The news fueled a rally in the euro against the yen and dollar, but it is the pound that was last weeks strongest performer overall. Sterling rose against all major currencies over last week.
Next weeks economic highlights include rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and Royal bank of Australia on Tuesday, followed by rate statement from the MPC on Thursday. Analysts are currently expecting no changed from any of these meetings. In addition the minutes from the last FOMC meeting are released on Wednesday. Thursday also brings UK PPI and US trade balance figures. Friday is a bank holiday for most countries.

Gold has remained in a relatively tight trading range over the last month or so a break out could be overdue.

A One Touch trade predicting that Gold/USD will hit $850 at any point during the next 9 days could return 209% at BetOnMarkets.

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Economic Calendar for week 16th – 20th February 2009

PLEASE NOTE – All times GMT

Monday February 16th:

US – ALL – President’s Day. Bank Holiday.
UK – 00:01 – Rightmove HPI M/M.
UK – 14:00 – MPC Member Bean Speaks.
UK – 14:00 – FOMC Member Duke Speaks.

Tuesday February 17th:

UK – 09:30 – CPI Y/Y.
UK – 09:30 – Core CPI Y/Y.
UK – 09:30 – DCLG HPI Y/Y.
UK – 09:30 – RPI Y/Y.
GE – 10:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment.
EU – 10:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment.
EU – 10:00 – Trade Balance.
US – 13:30 – Empire State Manufacturing Index.
US – 14:00 – TIC Long-Term Purchases.
US – 18:00 – NAHB Housing Market Index.
UK – 18:30 – MPC Member Besley Speaks

Wednesday February 18th:

UK – 09:30 – MPC Meeting Minutes.
UK – 11:00 – CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
US – 13:30 – Building Permits.
US – 13:30 – Housing Starts.
US – 13:30 – Import Prices M/M.
US – 14:15 – Capacity Utilization Rate.
US – 14:15 – Industrial Production M/M.
US – 18:00 – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
US – 18:30 – FOMC Member Evans Speaks.
US – 19:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday February 19th:

UK – 09:30 – Public Sector Net Borrowing.
UK – 09:30 – Prelim M4 Money Supply M/M.
US – 13:30 – PPI M/M.
US – 13:30 – Core PPI M/M.
US – 13:30 – Unemployment Claims.
US – 15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
US – 15:00 – CB Leading Index M/M.
US – 15:30 – Natural Gas Storage.
US – 16:00 – Crude Oil Inventories.
UK – 17:00 – MPC Member Gieve Speaks.
US – 18:15 – FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks.

Friday February 20th:

FR – 07:45 – CPI M/M.
FR – 08:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR – 08:00 – Flash Services PMI.
GE – 08:30 – Flash Manufacturing PMI.
GE – 08:30 – Flash Services PMI.
EU – 09:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU – 09:00 – Flash Services PMI.
UK – 09:30 – Retail Sales M/M.
US – 13:30 – Core CPI M/M.
US – 13:30 – CPI M/M.

EU – Europe wide
FR – France
UK – United Kingdom
US – United States
GE – Germany

The week ahead.

After a terrible Tuesday, markets never really recovered last week. After rallying into Treasury Secretary Geithner’s speech on Tuesday, US markets unwound in spectacular fashion. It appears to have been a case of markets expecting clarity from the new US administration, and getting nothing of the sort. The Dow Jones touched its lowest levels since November 2008 at one point.

Whether it was a case of ‘sell the news’ or a technical sell off, there’s no getting away from the fact that yesterday’s fall will have left central bankers and government officials cursing.

The rule book is being re-written by the week, as officials try one solution after another. Much was made of Bernanke’s expertise on the Great Depression, and arguably his dramatic interventions have helped stave off a financial apocalypse. However, right now it’s a blank slate, the scary thing about the current crisis is that nobody really knows how bad it will get, and when it will turn around.

Lloyds Group threw the markets another banking cluster bomb on Friday; seemingly out of nowhere Lloyds announced a £7bn write-down in HBOS’s corporate division. The shares closed the day down nearly a third on the news. According to CEO Eric Daniels, these losses reflect the application of a more conservative recognition of risk, and the further deterioration in the economic environment. Analysts at JP Morgan wrote a note the previous day saying “If the regulator were to require a more ‘comprehensive’ stress buffer, given that none of the banks have raised capital since, it would probably require them all coming to market, and probably requiring government capital.” (Cited in http://ftalphaville.ft.com). Judging by the HBOS announcement and the market’s reaction, JP Morgan may not be far off the mark.

Another concern was the data released from the ECB which stated that borrowing from the marginal lending facility hit 10.4 billion Euros, well above recent averages and the highest since November 10^th. It may be a blip, but this lending spike could imply that a major bank is in trouble. Irish banks are seeking recapitalisation and UK banks are thought to making use of the ECB’s facilities as well as their European counterparts.

Bank of England Governor King, warned that Britain is in a ‘deep recession’ with the rate of contraction potentially reaching as high as 6%. Exactly where a deep recession becomes a depression is up for debate, and perhaps such a label can only be applied in retrospect. Markets are taking each day and each economic announcement as they come, with the unfortunate result being a continuation of short term volatility. Still, markets have held above the November lows for now. If these levels fail, it could be the defining point of 2009 for world stock markets.

Oil continues to drop as global economic activity falters. On the other hand gold is on the rise and pushing back up towards $1000, as investors seek out safe havens while stock markets gyrate and central banks scour their text books for the next plan of action.

Next week’s top trading events are the release of the MPC meeting minutes on Wednesday. Analysts will be looking for clues as to the likelihood of further cuts towards zero for UK interest rates. Later that afternoon we have Fed chairman Bernanke speaking, followed by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes. Following the same theme, the Bank of Japan announced their overnight call rate in the early hours of Thursday. There is unlikely to be any movement, but the following press conference could spark some volatility as traders react to any additional central bank interventions.

Last week oil fell to around $35 a barrel, yet oil majors such as BP managed to hold up relatively well. A No Touch trade predicting that BP won”t touch £4.60 at any time during the next two months (60 days) could return 62% at BetOnMarkets.

Economic Calendar for week 24th – 28th November 2008

PLEASE NOTE – All times GMT

Monday November 24th:

GE – 09:00 – Ifo Business Climate.
EU – 09:00 – Current Account.
EU – 10:00 – Industrial New Orders M/M.
US – 15:00 – Existing Home Sales.
US – 15:30 – Annual Pre-Budget Report.

Tuesday November 25th:

GE – 07:00 – Gfk Consumer Climate.
GE – 07:00 – Final GDP Q/Q.
UK – 09:30 – BBA Mortgage Approvals.
UK – 09:30 – Prelim Business Investment Q/Q.
UK – 09:45 – MPC Treasury Committee Hearings.
US – 13:30 – Prelim GDP Q/Q.
US – 13:30 – Prelim GDP Price Index Q/Q.
US – 14:00 – S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI Y/Y.
US – 15:00 – CB Consumer Confidence.
US – 15:00 – HPI M/M.
US – 15:00 – Richmond Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday November 26th:

GE – 07:00 – Prelim CPI M/M.
GE – 07:00 – Import Prices M/M.
UK – 09:30 – Revised GDP Q/Q.
UK – 09:30 – Index of Services Q/Q.
US – 13:30 – Core Durable Goods Orders M/M.
US – 13:30 – Durable Goods Orders M/M.
US – 13:30 – Core PCE Price Index M/M.
US – 13:30 – Personal Spending M/M.
US – 13:30 – Personal Income M/M.
US – 13:30 – Unemployment Claims.
US – 14:45 – Chicago PMI.
US – 14:55 – Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment.
US – 14:55 – Revised UoM Consumer Expectations.
US – 15:00 – New Home Sales.
US – 15:35 – Crude Oil Inventories.
US – 17:00 – Natural Gas Storage.

Thursday November 27th:

US – ALL – Thanks Giving Bank Holiday.
UK – Tentative – Nationwide HPI M/M.
GE – 08:55 – Unemployment Change.
EU – 09:00 – M3 Money Supply Y/Y.
EU – 09:00 – Private Loans Y/Y.
EU – 10:00 – Consumer Confidence.

Friday November 28th:

UK – 00:01- GfK Consumer Confidence.
EU – 10:00 – CPI Flash Estimate Y/Y.
EU – 10:00 – Unemployment rate.
UK – 11:00 – CBI Realised Sales.

EU – Europe wide
FR – France
UK – United Kingdom
US – United States
GE – Germany

The week ahead.

Last week US equities ended a volatile week with big rallies on Friday, but these only came after the benchmark S&P 500 index had plunged to levels not seen for over a decade on Thursday. Despite Friday’s 6%+ rallies on the Dow Jones and S&P 500, those markets still finished the week down 5.31% and 8.39% respectively. After months of bailouts, mini rallies, rate cuts, and false dawns, investors threw in the towel. On Thursday, there was a panicked flight to quality, as the yield on the shortest term US treasury bonds sank to near zero. Money is flooding to what is perceived to the safest haven in these troubled times. The panic pushed investors into bonds, breaking records for that market. The yield on four-week Treasury bills fell to 0.045 %, and the three-month bill was yielding just 0.03 %, as investors rushed for safety.

The cost of insuring against investment grade companies defaulting shot up to its highest level since the crisis began. Worse still, Warren Buffet’s Berkshire Hathaway fund has seen the cost of its credit default swaps shoot to 5 times the level they traded at in June. At current levels, the CDS prices are implying that Berkshire is more likely to go bust than Morgan Stanley. When the Dow was trading around 13,000, Buffet used derivates to effectively bet that the market would be higher than this level in 15 to 20 years time. While there is still considerable time for this bet to work out, Buffet has already marked down a $6.7 billion loss on that trade. When investment ‘Gods’ such as Buffet look ready to fall, it is hardly surprising that investors are running to safe havens.

Just two months ago, the US Federal Reserve was still concerned about the “upside risks to inflation”. With last week’s 1 % decline in US consumer prices and rapid declines in UK inflation figures, we’ve gone from fears over inflation and stagflation, all the way to deflation in the space of 90 days. As a sign of the times, oil prices hit a new milestone last week. Just four months after making record highs of $147 a barrel, oil touched a low of $48.25 on Friday, a remarkable drop of 67%. The rapid demise in crude prices is having a direct impact on the Russian economy and stock market. Since May the Russian stock market has been leading other so called BRIC nations lower, with a drop of around 70% since the May highs.

Financial shares led the selling. HSBC received a broker down grade on fears of the state of its tier 1 equity ratio. HSBC was formerly at arm’s length to the rest of the banking sector with its relatively low exposure to US subprime loans. However, the ‘world’s local bank’ is now feeling the pressure due to its exposure to emerging economies, especially the troubled BRIC economies. In the US Citigroup was hit hard, losing half its value in just three days. Once the biggest US bank by market value, there is speculation that bad loans and writedowns may add up to losses totalling $20 billion for the troubled Citigroup. Some commentators point to Treasury secretary Paulson’s change of tack with regard to long directly buying toxic assets under the TARP program for sparking much of last week’s sell off.

Next week starts with the German Ifo business climate report which will analysed closely after recent announcements that many parts of the Eurozone are already in recession. US existing home sales are released at 13.00 on Monday and analysts are expecting further declines to 5.02 million from 5.18 million. Tuesday morning brings a raft of UK economic announcements with the MPC treasury committee hearing top of the list. Preliminary US GDP is announced around midday, with the revised UK figures out the next day. Thursday is an extremely busy day with a large number of US announcements. Core durable goods, unemployment claims and new home sales are the notable highlights. The rest of the trading week could be relatively quiet with many traders using Thursday Thanksgiving holiday to make a long weekend.

There is simply no telling what the market or economy might be like as we start 2009. A selloff of this speed hasn’t been seen since the 1930s, and although comparisons have often been made of late, it is worth noting that at the low points of this period, rallies, when they came were surprisingly aggressive. Barry Rithholtz last week noted that the AAII individual investor’s stock allocation was 15% below its 21 year historical average. Although not marking the exact bottom, readings of this nature were not a million miles from the lows of 1987, 1990 and 2002. With a hoard of cash waiting in the wings, there is always the possibility of this reading again marketing the bottom. However, this market has left many seasoned professionals scratching their heads as the selloff has been unlike anything seen for generations. In recent months, these markets have reached extremes of sentiment that in the past have market key turning points. The trouble is that of late, markets have continued to make new extremes way beyond previous inflection points.

One market that has been away from the headlines is gold. In the first quarter, it ran up to over $1,000, but has since retreated to just under $800. Gold was seen as a hedge against inflation and was used as a hedge against the weak dollar. With inflation on the wane and the dollar on the attack, gold has been on the retreat. However it hasn’t collapsed in the same manner than oil has and this is because gold is seen as a safe haven in times of trouble. These opposing cross winds have kept oil in a volatile trading range between $800 and $700 over the last 30 days. With gold rallying $50 alone on Friday, there is a very real chance of a break out of this range in the next 30 days. An up or down trade predicting that the price of gold in dollars (Gold/ USD in the forex menu) will touch $650 or $900 in the next 30 days could return 111%

Economic Calendar for week 17th – 21st November 2008

PLEASE NOTE – All times GMT

Monday November 17th:

UK – 00:01 – Rightmove M/M.
EU – 10:00 – Trade Balance.
US – 13:30 – Empire State Manufacturing Index.
US – 14:00 – FOMC Member Duke Speaks.
US – 14:15 – Capacity Utilization Rate.
US – 14:15 – Industrial Production M/M.

Tuesday November 18th:

UK – 09:30 – CPI Y/Y.
UK – 09:30 – Core CPI Y/Y.
UK – 09:30 – RPI Y/Y.
US – 13:30 – PPI M/M.
US – 13:30 – Core PPI M/M.
US – 14:00 – Core PPI M/M.
UK – 15:30 – MPC Member Besley Speaks.
US – 18:00 – NAHB Housing Market Index.
EU – 18:30 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.

Wednesday November 19th:

UK – 09:30 – MPC Meeting Minutes.
UK – 11:00 – CBI Industrial Order Expectations.
US – 13:30 – Building Permits.
US – 13:30 – CPI M/M.
US – 13:30 – Core CPI M/M.
US – 13:30 – Housing Starts.
US – 14:00 – FOMC Member Kohn Speaks.
US – 15:35 – Crude Oil Inventories.
US – 16:00 – FOMC Meeting Minutes.

Thursday November 20th:

GE – 07:00 – PPI M/M.
UK – 09:30 – Retail Sales M/M.
UK – 09:30 – Prelim M4 Money Supply M/M.
UK – 09:30 – Public Sector Net Borrowing.
US – 13:30 – Unemployment Claims.
US – 15:00 – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
US – 15:00 – CB Leading Index M/M.
US – 15:35 – Natural Gas Storage.

Friday November 21st:

FR – 07:45 – Consumer Spending M/M.
FR – 08:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI.
FR – 08:00 – Flash Services PMI.
GE – 08:30 – Flash Manufacturing PMI.
GE – 08:30 – Flash Services PMI.
EU – 09:00 – Flash Manufacturing PMI.
EU – 09:00 – Flash Services PMI.
EU – 13:00 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.

EU – Europe wide
FR – France
UK – United Kingdom
US – United States
GE – Germany

The week ahead.

World stock markets took another tumble last week with the major US indices penetrating the October lows intraday. The FTSE finished the week down around 4%, but it was UK plc that took a battering. The Pound fell to record lows against the European single currency, even breaking through the synthetic Euro/ Deutsche Mark lows from 1996.The weeks action was all the more damning considering the Eurozones admission that it too is in a recession. The Euro managed to end the slightly down against the dollar, but the pound plunged through the 1.5000 level for the first time since 2002. However there is still some way to go before the low of 1.3685 from 2001 is breached.

Financials were amongst the worst performing companies as Libor broke its 23 day decline. 3 month Libor increased to 2.15% and overnight Libor also pushed higher. The main catalyst was Paulson’s announcements of changes to the Troubled Asset Relief Program. As this originally was seen as getting to the heart of the matter in terms of offloading toxic assets, investors are confused as to what this means for future prospects for financial firms in the US. In the US, the insurance giant AIG had its earnings estimates cut, as did Wells Fargo. Much worse are the rumours that Fannie May may have to tap into US government cash to avoid liquidation. Previously unaffected stocks such as HSBC were also down hard after poor results, and there was speculation that it too may need to follow Santander’s lead in raising money through a rights issue. Until very recently HSBC and Santander were seen as being at arms length to the current crisis due to their relatively low exposure to the US housing market. However, with news of the UK property crash worsening and Asian markets faltering, HSBC is coming under increasing pressure.

More than anything market participants hate confusion or indecision, with the common reaction being “if in doubt, get out”. This is reflected in the performance of financial shares across the globe. Even when the wider market attempted a rally, financials were weighing on sentiment, like a ship trying to sail with its anchor still deployed.

Although last weeks UK unemployment data and sales projections from various companies fell below consensus, European markets didnt revisit the October lows and US markets managed to rally from beneath them . Despite the economic outlook arguably looking bleaker than it did just two weeks ago, markets havent capitulated. The optimistic interpretation of this scenario is that the bad news is starting to be priced in by the stock market. As markets are forward looking by at least 6 months, they could be discounting the slowdown that virtually everyone is predicting, and are looking for what happens after that.

The pessimistic interpretation of the current scenario is that markets are as over optimistic now as they were a couple of months ago. The default reaction to any impending disaster is in most cases denial then panic. The pessimist would argue that investors are still too optimistic about companys future growth prospects, and so further falls are likely. The reality is that markets are flipping from optimism to pessimism almost by the hour and remain entrenched in a choppy mess. After repeated failed rallies over the last few weeks, the bulls would be forgiven for giving up the ghost.

The coming week kicks off with some middle tier US industrial production figures and Treasury secretary speaking late on Monday evening. On Tuesday there is a raft of UK and US inflation numbers followed by Fed chairman Bernanke testifying as US markets open. Wednesday sees the release of the last MPC meeting minutes and with Gordon Brown calling for further rate cuts, these minutes will be poured over closely for hints of future decisions. Later that evening the FOMC release the minutes from their last meeting and although many argue they are done for now, Wall Street is still calling for more cuts.

There have been many comparisons between current market action and the great depression of the 1930s, and in many ways these comparisons are valid. The last time markets were as choppy as they are today was indeed the 1930s. The world is a very different place to how it was 70-80 years ago, but the current extremes were seeing point back to this period as being a strong likeness. According to Rob Hannah of Quantifiable Edges, the stock market only recovered from this decade long malaise, once it switched from chop mode to trending mode. If a long period of chop is the worst we experience over the next few months, even years, although frustrating, there may be worse things that could happen. Ironically, a smooth decline which bottoms out to form a smooth rally may be the real harbinger of a recovery. This may be a moot point as we are still far from seeing smooth rallies or smooth declines.

Potentially more positive signs were pointed out by Jason Goepfert of SentimentTrader, who noted that until this week the S&P 500 has never swung up 5% one day then 4% down the next. This has happened three times on the Dow Jones, all dates between 1929 and 1932. None of them marked a low, but were within a week or so of one. Barry Rithholtz also noted that market bottoms are rarely completed without multiple retests of prior lows. This is arguably what we were seeing last week. While there is considerable risk of further selling, at least with fixed odds trading our risk is limited to our stake. Therefore a Bull bet, which predicts that the market will be higher than a certain level in the future could offer an attractive risk reward. A bull bet predicting that the Dow Jones (Wall Street) will be higher than 9000 in 9 days time could return 187.

Economic Calendar for week 10th – 14th November 2008

PLEASE NOTE – All times GMT

Monday November 10th:

FR – 07:45 – Industrial Production M/M.
EU – 09:30 – Sentix Investor Confidence.
UK – 09:30 – PPI Input M/M.
UK – 09:30 – PPI Output M/M.
EU – 15:30 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.

Tuesday November 11th:

FR – ALL – Bank Holiday.
US – ALL – Bank Holiday (Veteran’s Day).
UK – 00:01 – BRC Retail Sales Monitor Y/Y.
UK – 00:01 – RICS House Price Balance.
GE – 07:00 – German WPI M/M.
UK – 09:30 – Trade Balance.
UK – 09:30 – DCLG HPI Y/Y.
GE – 09:30 – ZEW Economic Sentiment.
EU – 10:00 – ZEW Economic Sentiment
US – 15:00 – IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism.

Wednesday November 12th:

UK – 09:30 – Claimant Count Change.
UK – 09:30 – Average Earnings Index Q/Y.
UK – 09:30 – Unemployment Rate.
EU – 10:00 – Industrial Production M/M.
UK – 10:30 – BOE Inflation Report.
US – 16:00 – FOMC Member Kohn Speaks.
EU – 18:00 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.
US – 18:00 – FOMC Member Stern Speaks.

Thursday November 13th:

GE – 07:00 – German Prelim GDP Q/Q.
FR – 07:45 – French CPI M/M.
EU – 09:30 – ECB Monthly Bulletin.
US – 13:30 – Trade Balance.
US – 13:30 – Unemployment Claims..
US – 16:00 – Crude Oil Inventories.
US – 17:30 – FOMC Member Plosser Speaks.
EU – 18:30 – ECB President Trichet Speaks.
US – 19:00 – FOMC Member Stern Speaks.
US – 19:00 – Federal Budget Balance.

Friday November 14th:

GE – 07:00 – Final CPI M/M.
FR – 07:45 – Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q.
FR – 07:50 – French Prelim GDP Q/Q.
EU – 10:00 – CPI Y/Y.
EU – 10:00 – Core CPI Y/Y.
EU – 10:00 – Flash GDP Q/Q.
US – 13:30 – Core Retail Sales M/M.
US – 13:30 – Retail Sales M/M.
US – 13:30 – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
US – 13:30 – Import Prices M/M.
US – 14:55 – Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment.
US – 14:55 – Prelim UoM Consumer Expectations.
US – 15:00 – Business Inventories M/M.
US – 15:35 – Natural Gas Storage.

EU – Europe wide
FR – France
UK – United Kingdom
US – United States
GE – Germany

The week ahead.

Last week the Bank of England hit the headlines with an unexpected 1.5% rate cut. The move was largely pre meditated as a shock tactic to boost the ailing UK economy ahead of the all important Christmas period. Spreading the cut over a number of months would have had much less of an impact as it can take many months for the benefits of a rate cut to filter down to consumers. This is especially the case now with banks being slow to pass on cuts to customers. The MPC have sent out a message that they are prepared to treat the threat posed by the global slowdown very seriously. Unfortunately this message is a double edged sword, the euphoria that immediately met the rate cut was short lived and the FTSE soon rolled over and headed back towards the lows of the day.

There is also the possibility that today’s rate cut might make it less likely that the MPC will cut again in the near future. Experts had been calling for cuts of this magnitude over a number of months, but the MPC may have bundled all their planned rate cuts in one dramatic roll of the dice. It may be some time before they cut again, preferring to let the dust settle on the biggest single cut in a generation.

Friday’s US payroll figures were ugly by any measure, with the reported loss of 240,000 jobs slightly worse than expected. The worse data point to come out was actually the downwards revision to Septembers payroll figures, which pushed September payrolls down from -159,000 to -284,000. This means that so far in 2008, over 1 million jobs have been lost, most of these have been in the financial sector but the slump is prevalent in virtually every US sector.

On the face of it, it was perhaps surprising to see equity markets rebound so strongly on Friday, especially in the face of accelerating unemployment in the world’s biggest economy. However, the reality is that financial markets are forward looking, which means that most of the time the bad news is already taken into account when it comes. Fridays payroll figures could have been even worse than they were and judging by the rebound we’re seeing, a significant part of the falls on Wednesday and Thursday may have been traders rushing in to sell ahead of Fridays numbers. The net result is that the preceding two day sell off appears to have overshot slightly.

On the credit markets, libor and credit default swaps continue to improve for the worlds largest financial firms. The cost of insuring against companies defaulting on their debt is still very high by historical standards, but they have still come down a long way in the last few weeks. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs still remain a concern while the UK’s HSBC currently has the lowest CDS of the remaining major independent banks and brokers. In short, things have most certainly improved since the dark days of October, but there is a long way to go before we can say safely say that this credit crisis is over.

Next week starts with UK PPI figures and with ECB president Trichet commencing a series of speeches along side other central bankers throughout the week. The ECBs 50bp cut was largely expected last week, but there were some bold last minute predictions of a 100bp cut. Investors will be listening carefully for any hints from Trichet on future decisions. Friday promises to be the weeks busiest day with US retail sales and Fed chairman Ben Bernanke speaking at the 5th ECB central banking conference.

Last week Morgan Stanleys European strategist Teun Draaisma commented that stocks were now flashing a full house buy signal. According Draaisma markets have now fully priced in an earnings recession and retail investors, purchasing manager and sell side analysts have capitulated. Although very early in predicting the recovery in 1998, he wasnt far off in 2002. His full house sell signals timed the tops of 2000 and 2007 almost to perfection though. With this in mind it might indeed be the case that markets have already moved to discount the coming recession and are looking forward to what will happen beyond that.

A bull trade predicting that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be higher than 9500 in 6 months time could return 102%.

BREAKING NEWS (FOREX)

Dollar Merangkak Naik; Munculnya Kembali <i>Risk Aversion</i>
Jumat, 31 Oktober 2008
Oleh: Joko Praytno

Pergerakan dollar pada malam hari ini (31/10) terpantau mengalami penguatan terhadap mata uang mayoritas. Menguatnya kembali dollar dipicu oleh maraknya kembali aksi risk aversion yang menguntungkan posisi dollar. Melemahnya kondisi bursa Asia, terutama bursa Jepang dan bursa Hong Kong membuat para investor kembali memburu dollar. Ditambah lagi oleh anjloknya harga minyak yang saat ini telah turun ke kisaran 63 dollar/barel.